Egypt's succession scenarios suggest no cause for concern
In 1952, the
infamous King Farouk abdicated his throne in favor of his infant
child, who became, by name only, King Ahmad Fou’ad II of Egypt.
Today, exactly 50 years later, Egypt faces another possible
transition, as talk increases on the succession of President Husni
Moubarak by his son Gamal. The difference between Farouk and
Moubarak, however, is colossal. While the transition, from father to
son, ceremonial as it was in 1952, was part of monarchial norms, it
is still viewed with much scrutiny in Republican Egypt even today.
While the King abdicated in favor of a helpless child, hoping that
someday he would be able to rule, the president today is grooming a
popular, energetic, and educated young man to succeed him. Will he
eventually become president of Egypt, or will he continue to live in
the shadow of his father, just as Ahmad Fou’ad II did?
The young Moubarak,
who is 37 years old, is a declared favorite of his father. Talk of
him succeeding his father became public following a 1995 attempt on
the president's life in Ethiopia, and another in 1999 that took
place while he was on his way to Port Said. These assassination
attempts reminded people of Anwar Sadat's untimely death. That was
when people began to talk in a polite way of a post-Moubarak Egypt.
In November 2000, Moubarak Jr gave an interview to Time
magazine, criticizing officials and government progress, as well as
corruption. Since then, his portrayal has been of a modern-day
Ataturk, bound to bring change and progress to his country's
stagnant economy. He has repeatedly voiced his vision for a better
form of democracy in Egypt and a higher living standard. He has also
expressed his desire to help Egyptians stay away from extremism,
especially following September 11.
In his interview
to Time magazine, Moubarak Jr promised to support calls for
change, falling short of saying that he would be the man to bring
about this change. A step towards achieving that aim was his
election into the National Democratic Party (NDP the ruling party in
Egypt), in January 2000, where he promised to bring new blood into
its central committee. Seven months later in Damascus, Bashar al-Asad
was similarly elected into the ruling Ba'ath Party in Damascus, and
from here, went on to become president of Syria, a scenario that
many Egyptians believe can be repeated in Cairo. The young Moubarak
recently attended a meeting of the NDP, and along with his
associates, he promised change in 70 per cent of the senior posts,
60 per cent of which will be given to the younger generation, and 10
per cent of that 60 per cent will comprise women. President Moubarak
has also felt compelled to give an interview and assure the Egyptian
public that "there are rumors from time to time, that he [Moubarak
Jr] is to be appointed vice-president. Don't believe the rumors,
they are baseless". "I am not fixated on this and I am not
positioning myself," Moubarak Jr said in an interview with the
Financial Times of London. "We have institutions and matters
have to go through the executive channels." A few weeks later, at a
book fair in Cairo, he added, "Neither the president nor I would
agree that I seek, accept or be offered any executive post while my
father is the chief executive. Frankly speaking, my becoming
president is not on the table, it never occurred to me, and is not
an issue on my father's mind."
The process of
grooming Gamal for leadership took a new turn in 2002, when his
father took him along while on a highly publicized visit to the
United States. There he also met with US President George Bush to
talk about putting an end to the violence in the Occupied
Territories. In 1999, there were rumors that Moubarak Jr was
planning to establish his own political party called al-Mustaqbal.
In 2000, there was other rumors that said that he was preparing to
run for parliamentary office, but dropped out at the last moment.
Other indicators of his future role were seen in President
Moubarak's refusal to appoint a vice-president, fearing that this
official, vested with constitutional powers, would outflank his son
in the event of his death.
When President
Moubarak came to power in 1981, he was close to his defense minister
Abdul Halim Abu Ghazala. When the latter began to be project as the
heir apparent in the press and public, he was dismissed without an
explanation. After all, as a senior officer and a decorated war hero
from the Arab-Israeli Wars of 1956, '67, and '73, he had enough
legitimacy and potential to outflank the rising stardom of Moubarak
Jr. The veteran officer was a familiar face for the Egyptian public
and was highly popular in the armed forces. His successor was also
replaced in 1991, and the current minister of defense, Field
Marshall Husayn Al Tantawi, is also being seen as a possible
contender for the presidency. But Tantawi, because of his
deteriorating health, faces a natural barrier to leadership. If
Moubarak were to vacate the scene suddenly, his son would face a
slim chance of becoming president if Tantawi were his opponent.
Other names that have been floating in Egypt as possible candidates
for presidential chair are that of Chief of Army Staff Magdi Hatata
and Omar Sulayman, the director of Egyptian Intelligence.
Both men, however,
are relatively unknown and not too popular within the military and
political circles. Also, both are in their 60s, and given the
president's excellent health, vis-ŕ-vis his generation, he may as
well outlive those who are planning to succeed him. The two men
outflank Moubarak Jr because they are members of the military
establishment, which has been an accepted and expected norm in Cairo
since the officers seized power in 1952. However, being a civilian
is not drastically bad and the president's son can easily maneuver
his position, if there be need. The most likely scenario seems to be
the one where Moubarak will continue to rule without a
vice-president for as long as he is president. Article 82 of the
Egyptian Constitution states that when the president dies, his vice
will take over, and if the vice is absent, then the master speaker
will assume presidential office for 60 days. The current speaker,
Fathi Surrur, who is loyal to Moubarak and has no presidential
ambitions, would pave the way for transition. Then, the chamber
would have to decide on a candidate, who, through some political
maneuvering, could be Gamal Moubarak. The president has even said
this much in an interview, without making any reference to his son.
The transition of power, from him to his master speaker, and then to
a 'suitable figure', is a very practical system, exactly like the
one in place in France.
Beirut
Khaleej Times
August 18, 2002