Arafat Begins to Regain Momentum
Much has been
written in the Israeli press lately, regarding the on-going sage of
the Palestinians and the Israeli house arrest of President Yasser
Arafat. Of everything published, only one statement stands out as
remarkably true, made by the Israeli daily Ha'aretz, saying:
"The government's decision that Arafat is no longer relevant was
childish and embarrassing." Written by Israeli political analyst
Yoel Marcus, the editorial added, "No one knows better than Ariel
Sharon how irrelevant it is to say such things." In fact, Sharon knows
only too well that Arafat "will live long--longer certainly, than
his executioner." The statement was originally used by Libyan
freedom fighter Omar al-Mukhtar in addressing his executioner
General Rudolfo Gratsiani in 1931, and is very applicable to Arafat
today. Arafat has been around for long--too long, and Sharon is
clearly upset at having been unable to murder him in Beirut in 1982,
and apparently, twenty years later, remains incapable of doing so.
Whether the Israeli Prime Minister likes it or not, Yasser Arafat is
a legend in the Arab world he lives in--a legend of inflated
proportions maybe, due to the cause he represents, but a legend
nevertheless. Killing or destroying him would generate more violence
than the Israelis could possibly imagine. Obviously, it would also
bring the Sharon
cabinet crumbling down on the head of its leader.
Israel remains
divided over the pressing question: do we or do we not rid ourselves
of Yasser Arafat? Depending on the answer, the second question that
comes to mind is: who comes next? A wonderful response to the first
question was given by former Israeli justice minister Yossi Bellin
to L'Express magazine earlier last week, saying: "For years,
we talked about a substitute to Hafez al-Assad, and now that he is
gone, what do we get? Another Assad, more stringent and stubborn
than his father!" Nobody knows, he added, what would be in store for
Israel in post-Arafat Palestine. Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon
Peres, who is clearly at odds end with his Prime Minister, is also
refusing to imagine a post-Arafat Palestine. Having shared a Nobel
Peace Prize with Arafat in 1994, the former Labour Party leader
still has faith in Arafat, the PA, and the peace process. Last week,
he quarreled with Sharon over the latter's decision to coin Arafat
"a terrorist" and argued, "someone could understand from such a
statement that its okay to kill him." When Sharon officially
declared that the PA "supports terrorism," Peres walked out on
Sharon in protest. To his dismay, however, Sharon also declared that
Force 17, Arafat's chief security unit, and the military wing of his
Fatah Party (al-Tanzim), were "terrorist organizations that will be
acted against accordingly." Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer,
another ranking member of Labour, tried in vain to convince Sharon
of changing course. Thumping his fist, Sharon snapped back, "Arafat
is giving shelter to terrorists and financing terrorism. Those are
the facts and there is no way to ignore it. We have to convince the
entire world." With such an attitude, Sharon runs the high risk of
loosing Peres, Ben-Eliezer, and the entire Labour Party that
supports him. To counter their influence if Peres decides to quit,
the Israeli Premier has already begun talks with the National
Religious Party to serve as a substitute. Meanwhile, Sharon's
deliberate humiliation of Arafat, with US support, continues. The
PLO chairman remains nailed to his Ramallah office, barricaded by
Israeli troops. His chances of re-entering Jerusalem, which is no
more than a 15-minute drive from where he stands today, seem bleaker
today than ever. A majority of the Israeli public, apparently,
supports Sharon's bid to rid himself of Arafat. A poll conducted by
the Israeli daily Yediot Aharonot showed that 53% of Israelis
believe Arafat should be deposed, while 24% believe he should be
killed.
The second
question that haunts Israelis today is: who's next? The Jewish state
has a wide array of leaders to chose from, yet it knows that none of
them will offer what Yasser Arafat has given them. The Israelis and
rival Palestinian groups killed off most talented PLO officials who
had been groomed for succession, during the 1970s and 1980s. For
history, it is sound to remind readers of Israeli policies over the
past 30 years towards Palestine and its leaders. The young and able
Ali Hasan Salameh, head of Arafat's Force 17, was killed in Beirut
in January 1979, and so was the able PLO leaders Majid Abu Shara and
Issam Sartawi, who was murdered by Mossad agents in 1981 and 1983.
The PLO military supremo, Hayil Abdul Hamid, better known as Abu al-Hol,
was murdered, along with Arafat's deputy Salah Khalaf (Abu Iyad) in
Tunisia in January 1991. The PLO envoy to London Said Hammami, a
trusted aid to Arafat, was killed in January 1978. Hammami, Abu Iyad,
and Abu al-Hol, however, were murdered by anti-Arafat factions and
not by Israel itself. All of them would have shined today as
possible successors to the PLO Chairman.
The remaining
alternatives, however, are many. Constitutionally, the successor of
Arafat would be Master Speaker of the Palestinian Council Ahmad
Quraie. Unlike Arafat, Quraie, 63, better known as Abu Alaa, is a
civilian who lacks any power base within the occupied territories.
He is loathed by all hardliners for his role in the 1993 Oslo
Accords and derives his legitimacy by being close to Arafat. By law,
if Arafat dies or is deposed, he would take over authority as
president of the PA for an interim period of 60 days, orchestrate
national elections, then step down from office. Mahmud Abbas (Abu
Mazen), 65, is another name who has been hailed for long as the
self-appointed successor to the PLO Chairman. He is politically
strong, well connected in the Arab and Western world, and serves as
Secretary-General of the PLO. Due to his role in the Oslo Accords,
Abu Mazen is not very popular within the occupied territories. Both
would be welcome by the Israeli and US administrations. Other
younger candidates are Jibril Rajjoub, 48, who is chief of
Palestinian security in the West Bank, and Mohammad Dahlan, 41,
Arafat's security official in the Gaza Strip who co-lead the Camp
David talks with Arafat in July 2000. Both are categorically opposed
to the on-going 14-month intifadah, believing that it has
become a liability against Arafat and the PA. Since the intifadah
began, both have played an instrumental role in crushing Hamas
and the Islamic Jihad. Both are pragmatic, well connected in
Israeli, fluent in Hebrew, and spent long years under torture in
Israeli jails. Of all the PLO officials, the only one who commands a
strong power base is Marwan al-Barghouti, 42, a fiery orator who
serves as the West Bank chief of Fatah and is considered by Sharon
to be "a ranking terrorist."
A PLO
alternative to Arafat would be a bearable idea for Israel and the
USA. A ranking leader of Hamas, however, would be a nightmare.
Lately, Hamas has gotten the upper hand in the occupied territories,
making headlines for ceasing its suicide operations "to prevent
shedding the blood of more Palestinians." Earlier, however, since
the intifadah broke out in September 2000, Hamas was claimed
responsibility for 19 of the 35 suicide attempts that rocked Israel
and left 91 Jewish citizens dead. Number one on the Hamas leadership
list is the charismatic Abdul Aziz al-Rantisi, 45, a Hamas
co-founder who most Palestinians regard as a perfect substitute to
Arafat. A skilled pediatric, statesman, and orator, Rantisi treated
patients at his clinic in Khan Younis and worked as a lecturer at
the Islamic University in Gaza. He orchestrated the charity
organizations that dished out money and clothe to poor Palestinians,
and currently believed to supply assistance to around 7,000 families
in Nablus alone. Enjoying a paramount mass influence, he co-founded
Hamas in 1987 and one year later, was arrested for his activities.
Israel released him in 1990 and in 1992, had him deported, along
with a group of 400 activists, to South Lebanon. He served as
spokesman of the deportees at Marj al-Zuhour and was returned home
in 1993, only to be re-arrested until 1997. His mass popularity was
evident on December 20, 2001 when Arafat ordered his arrest.
Thousands of Palestinians flocked to his home, clashed with PA
police, and created a human shield to prevent authorities from
breaking-in. For hours, an exchange of gunfire took place in what
seemed to be a street-wise gang-war, and shouts in his favor echoed
in the streets of Gaza. Second-in-command is Khalid Meshal, 46, who
serves as the president of the organization's political bureau.
Based-in Damascus, he co-founded the party, and suffered an
assassination attempt in 1997. Back then the late King Hussein of
Jordan saved him. He follows a no-compromise, no peace talk attitude
that has elevated him in the hearts of many. Another name is Mousa
Mohammad Abu Marzouk, a US-trained engineer who was elected Chairman
of Hamas Political Bureau in 1991. He funneled funds to Hamas during
the 1990s, and spent 15 months in a New York jail. Israel refused to
receive him for trial, fearing a series of extradition attacks from
Hamas, and he was forced to take up residence in Amman.
All options to
post-Arafat Palestine, however, remain nothing but predictions. The
topic of concern today is not post-Arafat Palestine, but rather,
Arafat himself. One week ago, Arafat seemed at the lowest slump of
his career, yet today, he is beginning to regain momentum as all
Palestinians, both opponents and allies alike, rally under his
leadership. The decision taken by Hamas and Islamic Jihad to cease
all activities in order to give Arafat more room to maneuver is a
triumphant victory for the PLO Chairman. Arafat has appealed for
national unity, and for the first time in his career, all
Palestinians seem willing to listen. Preserving Arafat as a symbol
of Palestine has perhaps become more vital to the Palestinians than
preserving the intifadah itself. No leader in Arab history,
other than Arafat, has managed to survive, change colors, and
increase in popularity despite all odds. In two weeks time, Arafat
will be celebrating 37 years of a most active and controversial
political career. On January 1, 1965, a 36-year old Arafat launched
his first amateur attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. Back then,
Arafat called Israel, "a Zionist gangster-state" and Israel referred
to the attack as having been carried out, "by a group of wild boys."
Definitely Arafat has come a long way since then, but Israel
apparently has not.